In the last half year of 2021, the world’s richest man Elon Musk appeared to repeatedly pump his three favorite coins on Twitter: bitcoin, ether, and doge.
Things haven’t gone so well since then. Bitcoin is down 66% year-to-date, ether by 64%, and doge by 55%. Musk only tweeted about bitcoin twice in 2022 so far, and ether once. But Dogecoin has been tweet-graced by the memecoin’s defacto leader 16 times, on 13 separate days.
News of Musk’s Twitter takeover has flooded the platform recently, leading to a nice pump for doge that has it outperforming bitcoin 17 times over in October. In the same time period, the price has more than doubled.
So, Protos collected all of Musk’s doge-related tweets this year to see just how much impact he’s had on its price.
Musk tweets may have pumped doge price by 4.5% on average
Last year, Protos tracked Musk’s impact on doge’s price from May to November. All of his 30 tweets (across 22 days) coincided with a price increase from open to high on the day of the tweet, as well as compared to the highs from a week and month after.
On five days in which Musk graced the world with a dogecoin tweet, doge pumped more than 20%. In the week after Musk proclaimed he never has and never will sell doge, it soared up to 32%.
Protos calculated that on six separate occasions since May to November last year, doge sustained more than 5% gains after a week following a Musk tweet.
Granted, when we published last year’s piece, the shiba inu-inspired coin had risen a stunning 10,800% year-to-date. Bitcoin was up 350% and ether 1,000%. It’s no surprise that Musk’s possible effects have dampened amid a price apocalypse this past year — however, our results suggest that it hasn’t completely diminished his impact, either.
On average, Musk’s 16 tweets coincided with an increase in doge’s price by 4.5% by end of day. Only three led to a decrease in that same time period, all of which had low engagement by Musk standards — two were replies in a thread where the billionaire fired shots at Dogecoin’s co-founder Jackson Palmer, and one was to promote his new Burnt Hair perfume.
On November 23, 2021, Musk’s three replies that mentioned Dogecoin led to a price decrease of 43% by end of day — but all were replies to Binance chief Changpeng Zhao, demanding clarity on an issue that affected doge transactions on the crypto exchange.
“Doge holders using Binance should be protected from errors that are not their fault,” one read.
However, every time Musk explicitly showed support for doge, prices soared. When Musk teased that Tesla merch would soon accept the meme currency he garnered 355,000 likes — and doge saw a 21% and 9% bump by end of day and week, respectively.
Similarly, when Musk declared he would “keep supporting Dogecoin” in a standalone tweet, it racked up 390,000 likes and doge enjoyed a 14% bump by end of day — by the end of the week, it was up 39%.
On average, Musk tweets coincided with a decent bump in doge’s daily price. But the bear market was too strong to give his tweets longer impact. By close a week after posting, price declined by an average of -8%.
However, out of Musk’s top six tweets by engagement, five correlated with a doge pump anywhere from 4% to 39% by the end of the week.
It’s tricky to definitively measure Musk’s impact on doge prices. That said, a peculiar correlation exists.