Here are the macro tailwinds driving bitcoin to new highs

The viral thread by Ikigai Asset Management’s Travis Kling was right: Bitcoin got its free walk to all-time highs. The macro tailwinds that have sent crypto prices into record territory were foreseeable months ago.

Bitcoin led a global charge into all sorts of risk assets, including stocks, short-duration options, sports gambling, and even meme coins. It also enjoyed never-before-seen capital inflows from the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) newly approved spot ETFs.

The currency also rallied into its halving — expected on or before April 20 and the Lindy effect of bitcoin strengthened as employment rates increased, liquidity strengthened, and global equities achieved record highs.

Although the US government has not been printing as many dollars as usual in recent months, Janet Yellen’s discretionary Treasury General Account has spent approximately $1 trillion to keep the economy caffeinated.

People are fully employed, working at millions of new jobs added over the last 12 months and the benchmark US Core inflation rate is under control at a healthy 2.8%.

Since Kling’s viral prediction on February 2, bitcoin has rallied 55%. The total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies has rallied by approximately the same percentage.

A thread of 10 predictions that mostly came true earned over a million impressions.

More spot crypto ETFs incoming

With macro tailwinds pumping a steady airstream into bitcoin’s sails, the rest of crypto followed suit. Bitcoin ETF sponsors filed a spree of documents with the SEC, asking commissioners to approve a spot ether ETF.

Many are optimistic that the powerful DC Circuit Court of Appeals ruling — which forced the SEC to approve spot bitcoin ETFs — will pressure commissioners to approve spot ETFs for ether and many other crypto assets. 

Gone are the days of “arbitrary and capricious” denials of spot crypto ETFs. Going forward, the SEC must be able to explain any denials of spot crypto ETFs in a manner that does not violate the ruling of the country’s second most powerful court. Otherwise, it must approve them, despite how much Commissioners might despise the rampant fraud of crypto promoters.

Read more: Abolish the SEC! A decade of battling crypto’s top regulator

Ending altcoins’ pretense of utility and embracing degeneracy

Kling’s ‘free walk to all-time highs’ prediction was not his only accurate call. His more-than-1 million-impression thread also correctly predicted that 2024 would be the year when, in his own words, crypto participants would accept “a lack of pretense that any of this s*** does anything or will ever do anything.”

It’s more true than ever. Modern stock traders bought Gamestop at any price without regard to revenue multiples or discounted cash flows, and their approach in crypto is even more degenerate. The current meta in crypto is meme coins. These profile picture-themed cryptocurrencies often have no whitepaper, roadmap, utility, staff, or even website.

With crypto participants finally internalizing the lessons they’ve learned since the Gamestop and 2017 ICO craze, many have given up hope that anything besides a major crypto asset like Bitcoin “Does Anything or Will Ever Do Anything.” 

The pretense of utility is gone.

Many modern crypto traders simply embrace degeneracy, memetic desire, pumponomics, ephemeral communities, and outright gambling. People buy coins because the mascot is cute, they like the animal theme, or they played the video game from which the meme coin borrowed lore. Never mind this total lack of pretense, interest in meme coins is still up 50,000%.

With so much liquidity, bitcoin and the majors at all-time highs, risk assets and global equities at record levels, low unemployment, stable economic conditions, generous Treasury General Account spending, the halving quickly approaching, and a raft of spot ETF approvals on the horizon, macro tailwinds are blowing at the back of the crypto industry.

The all-time highs that the industry is enjoying have been entirely foreseeable since February 2, and likely far earlier.

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