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CHART: Crypto election markets and polls show very different odds

On Monday, Donald Trump’s odds of US election victory were 66% on crypto-friendly Polymarket but just 48% on The Hill. What gives?

Pro-Trump whale Fredi9999 is shifting Polymarket odds

Fredi9999 has transacted over $73M worth of mostly pro-Donald Trump bets and currently has $12M on the line for the election on November 5.

Polymarket users are betting that deceased cypherpunk Len Sassaman will be revealed as Satoshi Nakamoto in HBO’s documentary.

Polymarket confirmed that Threadguy’s 50-word exchange with Trump was an interview, settling a bet made after a hasty $25,000 NFT purchase.

Commentators have accused a Polymarket trader of attempting to manipulate the US election market in order to win a bet on a side-market.