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8:00 PM — Jensen Huang, Nvidia, Polymarket — by Protos Staff

How quickly did Polymarket react to Nvidia news?

Polymarket markets reacted quickly to news of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s resignation amid reporting about three affairs, two with employees and one with a Megaspeed exec who may or may not be a Chinese spy.

Protos used the Polymarket API to attempt to better understand exactly how quickly these markets react to this type of news.

Line chart of the Polymarket price for "Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?" by the minute from 4:40pm to 5:44pm ET on Nov 11, 2026. About 16% until the New York Times published its Powell story at 4:55pm, then about 26-36%; after the Wall Street Journal reported at 5:28pm that the board was preparing to oust Huang it jumped to about 77% and ended near 64%. — Markets about Huang’s future reacted quickly to the reporting of the second affair and his possible ousting.

Polymarket’s market predicting whether or not Huang would resign or be removed by December 31 reacted quickly to both the reporting of the second affair and to the report that the Nvidia board was considering removing him.

Indeed, it seems that looking at the second-by-second data, the market started moving mere seconds after the New York Times piece was published and even quicker after the publication of the Wall Street Journal piece that suggested he may be ousted.

The difference here may simply come down to precision in the timestamps; each only has a timestamp accurate to the minute, and both moved within two minutes.

Line chart of the Polymarket price for "Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026?" from 8:46:12am to 8:51:12am ET on Nov 12, 2026, the last trade in each second. Around 34-35% until Nvidia's press release crossed GlobeNewswire at 8:48:12am; the first buy came at 8:48:19am and the price passed 90% at 8:48:43am, reaching 99-100% by 8:50am. — Within a minute of the news landing, the market was flirting with its maximum values.

Nvidia’s press release about its CEO transition landed on GlobeNewswire approximately 31 seconds before the market for Huang’s removal or resignation by November 12 had almost fully digested the news and was trading above 90%.

Within a minute, the market was flirting with its maximum values.

Line chart of the Polymarket price for "Third Jensen Huang affair reported by December 31?" from 2:22pm to 2:29pm ET on Nov 12, 2026, the last trade in each second. Flat near 38% until buying began at 2:24:31pm, 11 seconds before Tree News posted Reuters' exclusive alert on X at 2:24:41pm; the price passed 90% at 2:25:15pm and reached about 98% before 2:27pm, the minute shown on Reuters' web story (1:27pm CT). — Markets around the third affair had almost fully reacted before *Reuters* had even published its story.

Traders were also participating in markets that allowed them to predict whether or not a third affair would be announced.

This market moved almost simultaneously with accounts on X starting to share the news off the wire.

The market had almost fully reacted to this news before Reuters had even published its story on its website.

In all these cases, these markets quickly integrated the information that was being reported into the valuation of these binary options.

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