Traders 73% less confident of Canada getting pro-Bitcoin PM
Binary options gambling website Polymarket is facilitating crypto-denominated bets at a dismal 25% odds rate that Pierre Poilievre will become Canada’s next prime minister on April 28. That’s a stark 73% decline from the pro-Bitcoin candidate’s 93% odds rate just three months ago.
Donald Trump is largely responsible for the swap in the race’s odds. Trump tacitly endorsed Mark Carney, telling Fox News TV viewers that “it’s easier to deal with” him versus Poilievre. He added, “the Conservative [Poilievre] that’s running is, stupidly, no friend of mine” who has “said negative things.”
Once trading at 12% when Poilievre was trading at 93%, Carney has now advanced to a 76% rate among Polymarket gamblers. Holders of these binary call options will make money if Carney wins re-election as Canada’s prime minister.
Binary options competitor Kalshi, a Polymarket competitor, is facilitating trades at a 79% rate, favoring Carney, and a 22% rate against Poilievre.
Like most two-party political elections, all third-party candidates have a low single-digit chance of becoming prime minister.
Canada’s pro-Bitcoin candidate is crashing
As leader of Canada’s Conservative Party, Poilievre has proposed using digital assets like bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) to “decentralize” the nation. Through blockchain technologies, he wants to give Canadians a supposed alternative to central banking.
Bitcoin Magazine’s David Bailey, Coinbase’s Brian Armstrong, MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor, Bull Bitcoin’s Francis Pouliot, Galaxy Research’s Alex Thorn, and various other Bitcoin influencers have endorsed Poilievre.
Read more: Canadian Conservatives pick bitcoiner to take on money-printing liberals
Poilievre has accused the Bank of Canada of “ruining” the Canadian dollar by creating “$400 billion out of thin air.” He says digital assets and blockchain-based applications can give Canadians an alternative to mainstream finance.
Carney has countered by supporting a central bank digital currency, calling it “the most likely future of money.” Carney has previously worked for Goldman Sachs and defended Brookfield Asset Management’s use of offshore tax shelters.
Canada will elect its next prime minister on April 28.
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