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CHART: Crypto election markets and polls show very different odds

On Monday, Donald Trump’s odds of US election victory were 66% on crypto-friendly Polymarket but just 48% on The Hill. What gives?

Pro-Trump whale Fredi9999 is shifting Polymarket odds

Fredi9999 has transacted over $73M worth of mostly pro-Donald Trump bets and currently has $12M on the line for the election on November 5.

Commentators have accused a Polymarket trader of attempting to manipulate the US election market in order to win a bet on a side-market.

Polymarket has promised the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that it will never allow US residents to wager using its platform.

Although crypto is not a main topic of the 2024 US presidential election, the industry is 10X richer than it was last election.