Polymarket’s $58M Zelenskyy suit bet will be decided today
Polymarket’s controversial Volodymyr Zelenskyy suit market is now up for its final review after UMA token holders consistently refused to accept that the Ukrainian president wore a suit.
The market’s outcome of “Yes” has already been disputed twice by large holders of UMA, the “oracle” that holds the final say over the outcome of any Polymarket bet. Now, the suit market with almost $58 million in volume is undergoing its final review that will last for another 11 hours.
These UMA holders have been accused of manipulating the outcome with their inaccurate assertion that Zelenksyy didn’t wear a suit in July.
Read more: Why Polymarket users are betting that Jesus Christ will return
This is despite the BBC, New York Post, Reuters, Kyiv Post, Polymarket Intel, and multiple other news outlets claiming that he did. Even “derek guy,” an X account known for in-depth fashion commentary, claimed it was indeed a suit.
However, on July 1, Polymarket doubled down and claimed the opposite, saying “a consensus of credible reporting has not confirmed that Zelenskyy has worn a suit.”
Polymarket user Calvin Hamilton noted that Polymarket has rejected three feedback proposals this week, which asked it to set up a market integrity team and reevaluate its position on the market.
Hamilton also spotted that Polymarket had rebranded its Polymarket Intel account, which called Zelenskyy’s outfit a suit, to classify it as “community run” instead, a likely attempt to distance itself from its own statement.
When is a suit not a suit? When UMA holders say it’s not
Polymarket experienced a similar situation last March when a market on a potential mineral deal between Ukraine and the US resolved inaccurately to “Yes.” Despite this mishap, Polymarket refused to refund users and said it wasn’t “a market failure.”
Read more: DOGE lies break Polymarket prediction market
At the time, a Polymarket team member told crypto journalist Molly White that “This is an unprecedented situation, and we have been in war rooms all day internally and with the UMA team to make sure this won’t happen again.”
“This is not a part of the future we want to build,” they added.
Unfortunately, it does seem to have happened again. The UMA system works by allowing users to bond their assets to the oracle and suggest a resolution, which can then be disrupted. The winning voters then receive half of the bonds of the other voters.
The oracle protocol doesn’t comprehend reality, and only operates based on the market decisions of oracle voters, regardless of whether they are right or wrong.
Got a tip? Send us an email securely via Protos Leaks. For more informed news, follow us on X, Bluesky, and Google News, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.