Nvidia closed Thursday’s trading session $1.5 trillion lower than its valuation one month ago, threatening to decimate a year’s worth of bullish stock price predictions by investors who were fooled by the company’s AI prospects.
Most bullish forecasters are praying for a miracle. CEO Jensen Huang has resigned after admitting to two affairs, including one with a Chinese mistress running a company allegedly involved in smuggling export-controlled chips for the benefit of the Chinese Communist Party.
In August, Motley Fool contributor John Bromels wrote, “I’m predicting a $6 trillion market cap for Nvidia by the end of the year,” with Keithen Drury joining that call.
It’s actually declined from $5.5 to $4 trillion over the past month.
Traders everywhere were bullish. In October, options implied roughly two-in-three odds that Nvidia would hit $6 trillion by December 18. It probably won’t.
On Polymarket, odds of Nvidia finishing 2026 atop the global market-cap rankings sank from a nose-bleeding 89% on October 6 to just 11% today. For context, Nvidia currently ranks second by market cap among the world’s public companies, barely above Microsoft.
Altimeter founder Brad Gerstner aimed higher. In May, Gerstner posted, “I think Nvidia will be the first $10 trillion company.” That would require a market value 2.5 higher than current prices.
As shareholders digested the negative headlines, Nvidia’s common stock, NVDA, has declined 8% this week and 26% over the past month.
The Nasdaq stock now languishes at $166 per share, 30% below its October 6 closing high. The collapse has stranded innumerable 2026 forecasts.
‘I’m long NVDA and just bought more!’
Social media prophets named unrealistic predictions. Nick Dorsey set his end of year price target for Nvidia at $285 in January. In June, Milk Road’s Kyle Reidhead predicted “$NVDA to $300+ by the end of the year.” Getting to $300 now requires an 80% rally within six weeks.
Cole’s Trades promised, “$NVDA will be a $250 stock by end of year” in July. In September, John Trades MBA called for $250 per share.
Others went bigger. One trader listed $450 for a 2026 year-end target, while Marcos Milla insisted on NVDA becoming “a $400 stock” on October 21.
Some deadlines have already expired in embarassment. Peter DiCarlo forecasted “$250 by end of August,” in June. It didn’t. Nvidia finished August at $220.78, instead.
Jason Calacanis bought Nvidia in late October. On Wednesday evening, hours before Nvidia announced Huang’s exit, he wrote, “I’m long NVDA and just bought more!” Yesterday’s decline worsened his already losing position.
Read more: How Alice Huang helped Nvidia with Chinese export restrictions
Wall Street was way off on Nvidia predictions
Professional stock analysts were just as embarrassed by NVDA’s collapse this month.
Baird had a $500 price target, before slashing it to $200 on Wednesday.
On Thursday, Evercore ISI slashed $465 to $186 per share, and Bernstein halved $400 to $200. Melius, which held onto hopes of $420 per share until November 2, dropped to $185.
Other brokerages followed. Goldman Sachs lowered its target to $220, Citi moved to $225 and JPMorgan went to $215. RBC settled on $230 and Stifel chose $205, while Needham landed at $200 with DA Davidson matching.
Cantor Fitzgerald cut to $250, Bank of America trimmed to $280, and Rosenblatt lowered its 12-month target from $390 to $300.
Analyst Dan Ives even priced the founder separately. He wrote, “We see the stock valuation at $225 without Jensen.”
Raymond James’ Simon Leopold has not budged. Late Wednesday, he reaffirmed a 12-month $515 target, calling the risk to fundamentals modest. When he set it in August, that figure implied a $12.4 trillion valuation. It now needs to triple.
Jim Cramer, who long told viewers to hold the stock rather than trade it, conceded, “It’s very sobering.”
Bettors have noticed. Polymarket traders now price mere single-digit odds of a $6 trillion Nvidia by year-end, and far higher odds, at 41%, that it finishes below $4 trillion.
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