Maduro Polymarket bet raises insider trading concerns
A Polymarket trader who made $437,000 betting on the exit of Venezuela’s president Nicolás Maduro just hours before he was captured by the US has prompted fresh insider trading concerns.
The Polymarket account, which was created in December, bet $32,000 that Maduro would be removed from power by January 31.
The bet was placed as early as December 31, and the account continued placing bets up until 3am UTC on Saturday 3, the day of the US’ military operation.
Delta Force seized Maduro from his Caracas safehouse during a large-scale strike on the city. The operation, which reportedly took months of planning, was initially scheduled to take place in December.
Read more: Reform UK insider George Cottrell tied to Trump Polymarket bets worth millions
Maduros was then moved to the USS Iwo Jima before being flown to New York, where he’ll be charged with drug trafficking and narco-terrorism.
Many speculate that control over the country’s vast oil reserves could have played a part in the operation, while an investigation by Whale Hunting has revealed that the regime may be sitting on $60 billion worth of bitcoin (BTC).
Maduro’s opponent, María Corina Machado, praised BTC in 2024 as a “vital means of resistance” against the country’s dire economic collapse.
Polymarket trader went all in on US action in Venezuela
The suspicious Polymarket account also placed bets on whether Trump would invoke war powers against Venezuela, if its forces would enter the state, and if it would invade the country, all by January 31.
In response to subsequent fears about insider trading, Punchbowl News founder Jake Sherman claimed that US Democrat Ritchie Torres will introduce a bill that prohibits government officials from engaging with “prediction market contracts when they either possess material nonpublic information relevant to the transaction or could reasonably obtain such information through their official duties.”
The operation wasn’t exactly kept under wraps. Trump revealed during a briefing aboard Air Force One that oil executives were tipped off about the operation “before and after” it took place.
Both The Washington Post and New York Times also reportedly learned of the raid prior to its execution, but held back on reporting the story to avoid endangering US troops.
Read more: Venezuela had crypto for buying jet fuel, now its president has lost his plane
In the weeks prior, the US reportedly encouraged oil execs to quickly return to Venezuela and invest significantly in the region.
After the attack, Trump also claimed the US would run Venezuela until a “proper and judicious transition” of power takes place.
Since the raid, Trump has repeated threats to annex Greenland, and has also threatened Colombia with military action.
The prospect of military action from a superpower appears to have spurred another Polymarket trader to bet over $30,000 on China invading Taiwan by the end of the year.
Protos has reached out to Polymarket for comment and will update this piece should we hear back.
Got a tip? Send us an email securely via Protos Leaks. For more informed news, follow us on X, Bluesky, and Google News, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.