Crypto prediction markets open ‘Trump out’ bet amid death rumors
Crypto prediction markets are now taking bets on Donald Trump being “out as president” by the end of the year after rumors of poor health and a number of photos in which he looked particularly frail led to speculation around his possible impending death.
The bets were opened by rival predictions markets Kalshi and Polymarket on August 30, and September 1, respectively, and currently give trump an 9%-10% “chance” of leaving the White House before 2026.
The timing suggests the two crypto firms are trying to capitalize on rumors of Trump’s death that spread across X last weekend.
Read more: Crypto traders ‘talking to lawyers’ over Polymarket’s Zelenskyy suit bet
The rumors were stoked by recent pictures of Trump’s bruised hand. However, back in July, the White House claimed this bruising was actually due to chronic venous insufficiency that stemmed from “frequent handshaking and the use of aspirin.”
Every year, roughly 150,000 new patients are diagnosed with the disease that can cause “a diminished quality of life and loss of work productivity,” with symptoms including “pain, leg swelling, pruritus, skin discoloration, and limb heaviness.”
On August 31, Trump also uploaded an image to Truth Social of him playing golf with Jon Gruden, which led to accusations of him posting old photos. This is based on the clothes Gruden is pictured wearing that match another golf trip he shared photos of on August 23.
For a few days, Trump disappeared from public view, but was eventually pictured visiting his Virginia Club on Saturday. A post from Trump’s Truth Social account on Sunday night said, “NEVER FELT BETTER IN MY LIFE.”
Trump’s Vice President, JD Vance, had refuted rumors about Trump’s deteriorating health last Wednesday. He also claimed he would be well-suited to replace Trump if there was “a terrible tragedy,” but the interview and comments only led to more speculation.
Kalshi won’t actually bet on Trump’s death
It’s worth noting that the fine print differs across the two prediction markets. Kalshi, while opening the market amid the initial death rumors, won’t actually resolve to “yes” if Trump dies.
Instead, it claims it would “determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death).”
Polymarket, however, will settle the bet to “yes” if Trump is removed, resigns, or “ceases to be” the president of the United States.
Polymarket’s bet has $519,000 in volume, while Kalshi’s has $586,000. It’s also important to note that the “chance” percentage in these markets is based on binary options gamblers placing bets on whether or not UMA token holders would attest to Trump’s exit from his presidential role.
This UMA system has been wrong several times and reached its own conclusion on bets that contradict factual reporting.
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