We check the accuracy of 20 Arthur Hayes market calls
For some reason, crypto traders look to Arthur Hayes for market forecasts. Hayes rose to prominence as CEO of BitMEX, once the world’s largest crypto derivatives exchange, where his market-maker traded against his own customers.
Hayes’ fame continued after his indictment and house arrest, and he’s now chief investment officer at Maelstrom.
Although a comprehensive accounting of every prediction Hayes ever made is beyond the scope of this article, Protos has analyzed 20 of his most recent predictions and listed the results below.
Sub-$50K bitcoin
On September 6, 2024, Hayes predicted, “BTC is heavy, I’m gunning for sub $50k this weekend. I took a cheeky short.”
Unfortunately, bitcoin didn’t drop below $50,000. Later that day, it briefly dropped to $52,546, but it has never traded at a lower price since.
Conclusion: Fail.
Crypto’s March peak
On January 6, 2025, Hayes predicted that crypto markets would peak in mid-March 2025.
However, the highest market capitalization for crypto assets occurred on the day of Donald Trump’s inauguration — January 20, 2025.
By March, crypto’s total market cap was over half a trillion dollars lower than on the day of the inauguration.
Conclusion: Fail.
Read more: CHART: Wasn’t Trump supposed to be good for crypto?
Bitcoin will hit $110,000 before reset
On March 23, Hayes predicted, “I bet BTC hits $110,000 before it retests $76,500.”
To the contrary, BTC re-tested $76,500 on April 7 and failed to hit $110,000 between March 23 and April 7.
Conclusion: Fail.
Hayes’ bullish picks
On January 6, 2025, Hayes published a bullish forecast for seven crypto assets: BIO, VITA, ATH, GROW, PSY, CRYO, and NEURON.
Sadly, the year-to-date returns of these picks are as follows:
- BIO -89%
- VITA -76%
- ATH -28%
- GROW -86%
- PSY -73%
- CRYO -78%
- NEURON -77%
Conclusion: Seven failures.
Hayes says ‘buy everything’
On May 12, Hayes made a macroeconomic forecast for the broad market, saying, “Buy everything.”
At that time, the Vanguard Total World Index opened pre-market trading at $121.72. It remains within 1% of that price as of publication time and there has been no substantial change in world equity prices since the call.
Conclusion: Indeterminate.
Bitcoin’s $1 million rally
On various dates in 2024 and on May 4 this year, Hayes predicted that BTC would rally to $1 million by 2028.
Although BTC has rallied since Hayes made his prediction, it remains more than 89% below his target price.
Conclusion: Indeterminate.
Read more: Did Arthur Hayes dump the project he shilled at Token2049?
Even Hayes admitted his failure rate
On September 25 last year, Hayes analyzed his eight most recent predictions spanning 2023 to autumn 2024.
Unfortunately, only six of his last eight predictions at that time were correct.
Conclusion: Six self-admitted failures, two successes.
In summary, Hayes failed in 16 of these 20 predictions, succeeded in two, and predicted two prices for future timeframes that make a current determination impossible.
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