Polymarket traders accused of ‘insider trading’ Nobel Peace Prize
Polymarket traders are being accused of “insider trading” the Nobel Peace Prize, with some betting $68,000 on Venezuelan activist María Corina Machado to win the award hours before it was announced.
Onlookers on X spotted that one trader called “6741” had created a Polymarket account specifically for this market. They started betting on Machado to win as early as 10:42 pm UTC the day before, spending $29,000 on yes bets over five hours.
They also placed bets on several other candidates, including Greta Thunberg and Julian Assange, that were priced between $30 and $400.
The only other pricey position they bet was $14,000 placed on Alexei Navalny’s wife, Yulia Navalnaya, to win.
The award was announced at 9:00 am UTC, and 6741 made a profit of $53,500. Polymarket trader “Dirtycup” was also flagged as suspicious after only placing bets from 3:41am UTC onwards on Machado winning, paying $68,340 on yes shares and making a profit of almost $31,000.
X account Polymarket Whales noted, “Either @dirtycup knows something from Oslo, or that’s the wildest fan club ever.”
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Multiple traders went in on Machado around 12:00 am UTC, causing her odds of winning to shoot up nine hours before the prize was announced.
Before the award, onlookers claimed that if 6471 won, they were likely an “insider trader.” If they lost, they were alternatively a “degen gambler.”
Another user implied that the market showed that the Nobel Peace Prize organizers and their winners were “so bad at keeping information private.”
Insider trading has been a recurring concern that was raised previously in a bet involving the controversial travel YouTuber Lord Miles and his attempt at only drinking water and eating no food for 40 days.
Nicolás Maduro opposition leader wins Nobel Peace Prize
Machado is a Venezuelan democracy activist and leader of the opposition against the country’s current leader, President Nicolás Maduro Moros.
She’s been in hiding for much of the past year and has been persecuted over her advocacy for a democratic system.
The Nobel Committee described her work as “one of the most extraordinary examples of civilian courage in Latin America in recent times,” and said she was a “key, unifying figure in a political opposition that was once deeply divided… in a brutal authoritarian state that is now suffering a humanitarian and economic crisis.”
Read more: Venezuela had crypto for buying jet fuel, now its president has lost his plane
Away from the winners, the biggest loser in this year’s prize was US President Donald Trump, who’s been pressuring the Nobel Committee to give him a Nobel Peace Prize for years.
Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, nominated Trump in July.
Polymarket bettors tried their luck with a Trump win and sent his odds up by 14%. It’s not clear, however, if Trump was nominated before the submission deadline of January 31, 11 days after his second term began.
The Nobel Committee reportedly doesn’t publish the nominees.
White House Communications Director, Steven Chueng, has already said that the Nobel Committee’s decision today placed “politics over peace.”
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