Shock Spain-Cabo Verde draw leads to million-dollar losses on Polymarket
In the most shocking result of the 2026 FIFA World Cup so far, Cabo Verde held reigning European Champions Spain to a goalless draw on Monday.
The unexpected result has led to vast sums of money being lost on prediction market/de-facto sports betting platform Polymarket.
Indeed, the market’s biggest loser, a Polymarket veteran, lost $1.6 million banking on a Spain victory.
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An hour before kickoff, the Polymarket Sports X account highlighted another million-dollar bettor, who stood to win just $87,000 on a $1 million dollar wager that Spain would win.
The account turned out to be the second biggest loser, followed by another mammoth $720,000 loss.
On the other side of the coin, one freshly-created account hit the jackpot. The account, named “fishalive,” placed two bets, against Spain winning and the match’s spread, netting over $8.5 million in total.
However, with such large sums placed on such low odds, these bets are likely hedging exposure elsewhere, via another profile or on another platform.
In all, Monday’s match in Atlanta saw a total of $64 million worth of Polymarket positions traded, just over half of which was placed on the overall ‘moneyline’ result.
As the game kicked off, the market put Spain’s odds of winning at 90%, and a draw at 7%.
By half time, the European champions’ odds were still around 80% but they plummeted as the second half wore on and Spain repeatedly failed to score despite a seemingly endless barrage of attacks.
Cabo Verde’s 40-year-old goalkeeper Vozinha has become an overnight sensation, and was awarded player of the match. However, in a post-game interview, he explained through tears that his mother was unable to attend the match due to not being able to afford a US visa.
Another key player in keeping Spain’s superstar forwards at bay, defender Roberto Lopes was reportedly recruited via LinkedIn while playing club football in Ireland.
The island nation’s population is just over half a million people, around 1% of rival Spain.
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Prediction markets or just sports betting?
Staggering amounts are being wagered on prediction markets such as Polymarket during this World Cup.
The World Cup Winner market has already seen almost $2.5 billion in volume, with over a month to go before the final match.
Spain are currently second favourites with 14% chance, behind France at 17%, and have dropped two percentage points since yesterday’s Cabo Verde match.
The following match, between Belgium and Egypt saw one user, the aptly named “Leeeroyjenkins,” lose $8.7 million betting on Belgium. The match also resulted in a draw.
At the club level, La Liga club Osasuna was caught up in reports of hedging its relegation risk via Polymarket rival Kalshi. The club insisted that it had simply taken out an insurance policy and that the exact mechanics were down to the provider.
Spain temporarily banned prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi last month.
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