Gartner’s Hype Cycle predicts 5 years until mainstream NFT adoption

Gartner's Hype Cycle ranks NFTs squarely at the end of the 'Peak of Inflated Expectations' phase, a few steps ahead of DeFi.

NFTs could still be five years from mainstream adoption, according to the most recent Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies.

Gartner’s Hype Cycle is an annual report that scrutinizes 1,500 new technologies and tools to help users gauge their potential.

The Cycle is displayed as a graph that places the tools into categories based on where they are in their lifecycle.

  • Innovation Trigger: Potential breakthroughs start to capture the public imagination (and media interest).
  • Peak of Inflated Expectations: Early successes — and failures — see interest ramp up.
  • Trough of Disillusionment: Initial interest wanes. At this point, investment only continues if surviving providers improve to the satisfaction of early adopters.
  • Slope of Enlightenment: Benefits become more widely understood. New product generations appear, some potential users stay cautious.
  • Plateau of Productivity: Mainstream adoption takes hold.
Gartner's Hype Cycle ranks NFTs squarely at the end of the 'Peak of Inflated Expectations' phase, a few steps ahead of DeFi.

According to this year’s report, NFTs are currently riding the Peak of Inflated Expectations, fuelled by stories of $100,000 pet rocks and $69 million collages.

Curiously, Decentralized Finance (DeFi) is further back on Gartner’s Hype chart.

According to Gartner, DeFi protocols like Uniswap are still in the Innovation Trigger phase, with Peak of Inflated Expectations next.

Garner’s Hype Cycle says Trough of Disillusionment is next

According to Gartner’s Hype Cycle, the ominous Trough of Disillusionment is still to be negotiated if NFTs are to become more than a curious crypto offshoot. 

Some analysts reckon a lack of buyers, fears over environmental impact, clunky user experiences, and even hype itself are factors that could still derail NFTs.

Gartner released this handy video to navigate its Hype Cycle.

[Read more: DeviantArt enlists AI to police NFT markets for stolen art]

However, Gartner’s Hype Cycle is just a prediction and as such is far from guaranteed to pan out.

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[H/T: ZDNet]

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